Comcast and NBC... Only Apple Can Stop It

image: NewLaunches.comIt hasn't been nearly the news story it should be, but Comcast has been in talks to buy NBC for quite some time now. About a month ago, it looked like the whole thing fell through, but lately, rumblings of a purchase have re-surfaced.

This isn't like Disney owning ABC, or News Corp owning Fox. As we all know, Comcast is the tv and cable pipeline for a large portion of the country. Put yourself in the shoes of CBS, or any of the other networks. Imagine relying on your own competitor to beam your channel into millions of homes. Comcast could decide it's not worth it to carry Lifetime, or ABC Family (both parts of ABC) in favor of two new NBC channels. Your future as a broadcaster/network would lie squarely in the hands of the enemy.

Maybe that's why Apple has chosen this time to start shopping around monthly subscription options for television. You wouldn't expect the other networks to get on board, but in the face of the looming Comcast/NBC merger potential, it would make sense to find another distribution method.

While I said Apple could stop it, on their own, they wouldn't stop it as much as offer another option for consumers and other networks. They could lobby the FCC though, to keep the deal from going through. Would that be in Apple's best interest though? Would they be better served by being an alternative to the NBC/Comcast coalition? What about consumers?

Let us know what you think in the comments...

Five Things Apple Could Be Doing With The New Data Center, But Probably Isn't

Apple is ready to setup shop with a data center in North Carolina. Sure, it could be to simply add capacity to existing services, but let's look at some of the more exotic, yet within the realm of possibility, uses for it:

1. Mobile Me For Everyone

The internet has changed a lot since Apple first offered .mac/iTools, the predecessors to MobileMe. For one thing, there are more free online options for just about everything. Apple has re-positioned MobileMe, but the true advantage of it would come from Apple returning to its roots, and making MobileMe a free component of owning a Mac, or iPhone (since it has that Find My iPhone feature, etc.) Apple actually has a tremendous advantage here due to the size of its marketshare. Microsoft would be hard-pressed to offer a similar service to 90% of the computers on the planet. Then again, they seem to ok with hotmail/msn. Imagine an online version of time machine. Sure things like bandwidth limits could get in the way, but wouldn't be great to know you had offsite backup without another utility?

2. Live Video Streaming

One of the "missing pieces" in making Apple's living room "hobby" a full-fledged profit generator is live sports and entertainment. Think about the possibilities if Apple could give you the live programming you see now on broadcast television, and bring fresh new offerings as well. Like what? Oh, perhaps the yearly WWDC keynote and other Apple events for starters. Apple has been a big customer of Akamai through the years, but a full-on live video push would most likely require a new, proprietary approach.

3. TV subscription model

Of course along with live programming, Apple needs to find a way to offer a wide variety of content at an affordable price. Rumblings this week point to a $30/month price point for something. Whether that's to get one network's programming, or replicate your entire cable lineup, makes a big difference, but either move would bring Apple directly into the cable/satellite company's business. 

4. Cloud Apps

The days of apps on the desktop are numbered. At least that's what we've been hearing for years. Apple is great at letting others go first, learn from those mistakes, then offering something uniquely different, and often successful. (iPhone or iPod, anyone?) If a tablet device is in the works, it won't have the hard drive of your desktop, but it could have a decent processor, video card, etc. What if programs like iPhoto ran "in the cloud", allowing you to run the app on the tablet, seeing/editing your photos from your desktop (or online storage) in the same room, or across the globe.

5. Push Servers/Gaming

Given the success of the app store, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Apple add more capacity for push servers for apps. A more exciting move would be the development of games for a new tablet (are we getting ahead of ourselves?) and/or the AppleTV. AppleTV could become a cable box and game console challenger, all in one package.

Video Subscription Service Gains (some) Steam

The Wall Street Journal's All Things Digital blog is reporting Apple has been shopping the concept of $30 per month video subscriptions to tv networks. The blog merely mentions "sources," so let's hope they're not talking about our similar Apple TV proposal from TDL Live a few weeks back.

If there was a way to still get live events, then turning Apple TV into "the people's cable box," makes a lot of sense. And all-you-can-watch proposal would be a huge win to customers, if it was implemented in a way that meant you could ditch cable/satellite. Of course, for many of us, our TV provider is also our internet provider, so it could prove a tough sell, or might require some legislation loosening the power wielded by cable companies in the internet space.

We'll talk more about it tonight on TDL Live, 9PM ET / 6PM PT.

What's the Harm In An iTunes Subscription Plan?

Microsoft recently went after the iPod, by saying it would cost $30,000 to fill the iPod with music, but the magical Zune is only $15 / month for as much music as you want. This isn't the first time someone has used that $30k number before.

It all leads us to ask the same question we asked last June: What's the harm in an iTunes subscription plan? From our numbers at that time:

Today there are roughly 175 million iPods and iPhones sold. Let's say 150 million are still in use. Now let's assume 40% of those iPod/iPhone owners would be interested in a $15/mo rental program. $15/mo x 90 million would give Apple revenue of $1.25 billion per month.

There are a lot of unknowns here, so let's take a look at far more conservative numbers. Perhaps as few as 5%, or 7.5 million ipods/users would subscribe to the service. That would still mean more than $112 million in revenue each month, or $1.34billion per year. It would take less than four years to match the per song revenue.

It's still a valid question: What's the harm in adding a subscription? Give people the choice, and see what the market does. The only possible concern would be the royalties to the labels outpacing the rental income. If you don't like the rental plan, you simply don't use it. what are we missing?

5 Billion songs sounds like a lot, but...

Apple announced this week they have now sold over 5 Billion songs. That is a huge number, and a huge feat in a space that was practically non-existent before the iTunes store launched.

With that said, some people, especially stock holders, might want to get out the calculators for a minute, and consider the ramifications of a rental or subscription service instead.

For this discussion, let's assume Apple's cut of rented music vs. purchase would be roughly the same. And we'll assume all those 5 billion tracks were purchased individually, meaning the sales brought in roughly $ 5 billion.

Today there are roughly 175 million iPods and iPhones sold. Let's say 150 million are still in use. Now let's assume 40% of those iPod/iPhone owners would be interested in a $15/mo rental program. $15/mo x 90 million would give Apple revenue of $1.25 billion per month.

There are a lot of unknowns here, so let's take a look at far more conservative numbers. Perhaps as few as 5%, or 7.5 million ipods/users would subscribe to the service. That would still mean more than $112 million in revenue each month, or $1.34billion per year. It would take less than four years to match the per song revenue.

This isn't meant to suggest Apple should abandon per track pricing, but rather they should offer a rental system as well. Traditionally Apple has been set in creating hardware or software, then telling the consumer why they needed it. Why not, just this once, give the consumer a choice. A choice that could ultimately lead to far higher revenue.