Four Potential Positives of a Jobs-less Apple

First a few disclaimers. 1. We do not wish any ill will to Steve Jobs. 2. We have no reason to think his departure is imminent. 3. We're not calling for him to leave Apple, not in the least.

However, when Jobs is no longer with the company, be it next week, month, or decade, there are some potentially positives that could come along with the change:

1. Lower Cost Market Entry
It's been said time and time again, that the average price paid for a PC is falling. Other than the foray with the Mac Mini (let's hope for an update there, soon) Apple has all but ignored this market. Years ago Jobs made the point that luxury automakers are doing just fine with a sliver of the auto industry. His point at the time was to show that Apple wasn't in peril if it didn't have 15 percent of the market. While true, times have changed. No one is sitting around wondering whether Apple will survive these days. Instead the question becomes where can Apple find more growth. Like it or not, the low-end of the market is the answer. Plus there's a practical reason: Apple has created a largely successful ecosystem of iPod/iPhone/Mac. While many wannabe iPods have come and gone, if another company is successful at dominating the growing low-end market, they could potentially launch a legitimate competitor to the whole Apple environment. Without Jobs, Apple would have even more pressure from outside, and from what we hear, more support internally for aggressively pursuing this market.

2. Partnerships
One of the great premises of web 2.0 is the community sharing, and community experience. Companies also realize they can be leaner and more competitive when they work together. Sure, Apple could bury Netflix if they wanted to, but why re-invent the wheel? Partner with them instead. Apple is always set to "go it alone." If Apple does lose it dominance in music, for example, i would expect it to come at the hands of some sort of partnership among many companies, rather than a single competitor. Fortunately for Apple, so far these companies have shown themselves as inept at working together. (See "Plays For Sure")

3. Employee Blogs / Openness
The end of Apple's participation in Macworld will leave a giant void for the Mac faithful, who want to be in on what's going on. One way to satisfy that curiosity, and control the flow of information at the same time would be employee blogs. I think most Mac fans would find it fascinating to read a post from Johnny Ive for example, talking about the trial and error of creating the aluminum unibody. Let's see some videos of testing. Let's see some prototypes. We're talking about revealing this info after the fact, in a manner that would keep the faithful tuned in, and wouldn't reveal anything to put the company at a disadvantage. No one's asking for a three-year product roadmap, just some glimpse into the process of creating the products.

4. iPhone as a (more) open platform
I've seen the future. In five years we may be living in a world in which all phones with the exception of the iPhone run some variant of Android. These are the two mobile platforms of the future. Android will presumably be comprised of many of the concepts described in the other suggestions: several handset manufacturers agreeing/partnering on a single OS, an OS created in an open-source manner, and meticulously chronicled in blogs across the web. Over at Apple, we'll have updates pushed out when Apple says they're ready, and app developers in the dark, with their hands tied in what their apps can do. The iPhone has an impressive processor, and one can assume it will only get better. Consumers will wonder why can this $79 phone have touch capabilities, AND flash, AND copy and paste, and yet the (then) $149 iPhone doesn't?

So there you have it. The best news is, none of these changes would require Jobs to be gone from the company. He could decide at any minute to implement these changes. Given Apple's history though, don't hold your breath.

What do you think? Are there other potential positives of a Jobs-less Apple? Are we off our rockers this time?

An Optimistic Possibility From Apple's Macworld Decision

Earlier today, it was announced that Steve Jobs would not be giving the Keynote address at Macworld, and that this would mark Apple's last year at the event.

Within minutes, Apple-follower's heads (including mine) were spent spinning. But let me try to offer one optimistic explanation. Apple is, after all, Apple, Inc. and no longer Apple Computer Inc. Lest we forget there's another big electronics event in January: CES.

Maybe Jobs is positioning himself as keynote speaker for CES in 2010. It would be a terrible move to show up at CES this year, while the Mac faithful are gathered elsewhere. It would make sense though, that Jobs would want to go from Keynote speaker of his company's event, to Keynote speaker for the entire industry.

I don't believe Apple can be abandoning big events. They have served so well for launches of products like the iPhone. Sure the HiFi speaker could be introduced at a small press event, but grand, revolutionary products are a different story.

Sure, there are plenty of reasons this could simply be wishful thinking. Let us know your thoughts below.

Apple Drops a Bomb: No Jobs at MacWorld. Apple Leaving Next Year

Apple just dropped a bomb. Steve Jobs will not be giving the Macworld keynote, AND this will be the last year for Apple to attend the event.

More detailed thoughts once we pick our collective jaws off the floor...

The Retail Number Not Revealed in The Quarterly Call

One big question remains regarding Apple's plans to weather the financial downturn: Will retail stores continue to open at the same pace?

Apple has plenty of cash on hand, and could easily move full speed ahead with store rollouts, and probably get some deals on rent as well. The downside though, could be for short-term investors. If the economy takes a few years to recover (however you define that), then Apple's strategy of continued store openings would pay off big a few years down the road. However, in the next 12-18 months, the stock price could be in for an even rougher ride. Analysts would be concerned about increasing operating expenses with, at least temporarily, lowered returns. And of course there's always the thought of Steve Jobs leaving Apple. Whether his health is fine or not, at some point, he'll be ready to take a reduced role in the company. He could keep going for another 40 years, or he could decide tomorrow he's had enough. Jobs seems to have been mentioning all the great people at Apple - an implication to remember the iPhones and Macs come out thanks to far more people than just him.

The situation isn't completely unlike Apple's initial retail rollout. After the U.S. financial decline following 9/11, Apple boldly moved forward with retail expansion. Doing the same now could put Apple in a position to reach a whole new market plateau in three to five years. That potential future payoff could come at the price of investor hand-wringing in the short-term.

New iPods Announced and We Fall Asleep

Ok maybe that headline is a bit harsh. Certainly today's event was better than the infamous HiFi and leather case debacle of a few years back, but we can't help but wonder why these annual iPod announcements can't be handled via a press release and update to the website. If we take off our cynical hat for a second there are a few things we did learn today.

1) Steve is apparently still alive (and very thin). His first keynote slide jokingly referenced this.

2) Clearly the "fatty" Nano of last year was a mistake. Can an all touch iPod lineup be that far off?

3) Apple has so much power in the industry they can even force NBC's hand.

4) The iPod Classic is on its last leg. 160GB model discontinued.

5) Apple ear buds are now more over priced than ever. $79....ouch

6) iPod Touch owners continue to get screwed with paid software updates.

7) Apple has Nintendo and Sony in their crosshairs. Steve announces "It's the best portable device for playing games." Need for Speed looks hot!

All in all we'll grade this event a B- and focus our attention on early 2009 for some real surprises.