What comes after the iPad?

While browsing through the blog archives, I found a nugget I had written in August of 2009, with the title "After the tablet, what's next?" 

It seems more timely now that we know what the "tablet" actually is, so here it is again for fresh discussion:

In the world of trying to predict what's next for Apple, you can never be too far ahead. So we say, let's leapfrog over this whole tablet thing, and go straight to the next paradigm-shifting device: The _______. After the tablet, what's left? Apple has conquered the world of digital music. The iPhone is well on the way to dominating smartphone and/or all phone sales. The tablet could re-invent a sleepy product category, but then what? 

Maybe we see an Apple-branded TV, but that would feel like a small evolution: most likely taking a monitor from one of the big manufacturers, and throwing an Apple TV in it. 

While we would never count Apple out when it comes to re-defining a product category, or creating a brand new one, perhaps we're nearing the end of the golden age of hardware advances. Apple could conceivably put a gaming console on the market, but the Pippin didn't do too well. Sure, these are different times, but it's also a market with three strong console manufacturers, and becoming the fourth wouldn't guarantee success. (bear in mind no one is making iPhone money in console hardware sales, with most breaking even.)

One possible future frontier for Apple would be services. Who wouldn't want to see cable television re-envisioned? Or maybe Apple would become a phone carrier. As far-fetched as these ideas sound, the company will have to go further and further afield to find new product categories/services. iPhones will get cheaper, iPods will get smaller, Macs will get faster, and tablets will get whatever it is tablets get. But the question is, will that be enough for Apple, or will they branch even further from their computer roots?

Comments

[imenadel]

Or, perhaps something totally new and previously unthought of will appear. Everyone was quite happy and content in the 1980s with CD technology. Though they now seem like they have been a part of our lives forever, the first DVD players and portable mp3 players were not marketed until 1997. That's only 13 years ago. The ubiquitous iPod wasn't released until late in 2001, not even 10 years ago.

Who knows what new technology may be under development right now in someone's garage or basement or in a dimly lit lab somewhere? Perhaps even in the locked laboratories at 1 Infinite Loop.

I don't believe we are anywhere near "the end of the golden age of hardware advances."

[Anthony Navarre]

In their 2007 keynote introducing the iPhone - about 7:50 into the iPhone introduction: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/ - Jobs pointed out that all of their most revolutionary products have always involved a simple new user interface convention: the mouse with the Mac, the scroll-wheel with the iPod, and finally multitouch for the iPhone.

My bet is that the next breakthrough will involve a natural interface like the XBox Natal, but paired with a new version of the Mac OS (OS 11 + Minority Report, anyone?)

The question is, if they go that route, where does that leave the power-users and content creators that use the "pro" apps? Does the pro software evolve to do away with the traditional keyboard & mouse, or does the Mac OS diverge into different licenses for different user classes.

Something tells me that Apple will, as always, come up with something that is Granny-Smith-bitter for a few, Red-Delicious-Sweet for many, and everyone will eat it up either way.

[Cool]

Anthony, I believe you are spot on. Apple will create a new interface that we will be able to interact with in 3D. The power users will still be able to use the old GUI. And the mouse and keyboard will not be replaced but in addition to. Just as the mouse did not replace the keyboard. Apple now, and forever will change how we use and interact with technology.