When Will Everyone Who Wants an iPod Have One? Soon
Back in my Apple retail days, it was quite impressive to see the number of people buying 3rd gen iPods. The third generation (with the four buttons across the top) marked the start of mass adoption. The buying frenzy was so strong, and so long, I started to wonder if the market of people willing to spend $250 on the device would soon dry up.
Well as history has shown, Apple had far more people willing to buy that player than I thought, and soon Apple began addressing the lower-priced market with the iPod Mini, Shuffle, etc.
It looks like we might finally be reaching the saturation point though. AppleInsider took a look at the latest Piper Jaffray teen survey, and it looks like in the teen market at least 92% of the respondents had a digital media player, and 86% of those who did, had an Apple player. In case you're curious, the Zune came in at 4% (gee, it's almost the exact opposite of OS market share...)
With this market nearly filled, Apple will either need to add more features, or convince more of these teens (and their parents) to get an iPhone. Eight percent said they owned an iPhone, and 16% said they planned on buying one this spring. Unfortunately, the report didn't provide data on computer purchase plans.
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The upgrade path on iPods can take a route that transcends the saturation issue. Two routes actually: subsidized pricing and 3G service, which will allow Apple to add enormous features, including a camera, video, gps, along with more memory and faster chips. And it will be an untethered autonomous Mac; no need for a second, parent Mac connection. And it features the first authentic, consumer friendly computer OS interface: the iPhone OS.
Better than the Kindle, this MacCloud or MacTouch can connect to MobileMe. So our files are available all the time with 3G/MobileMe. Simple, secure backup and access. It’s all the Mac most of us would ever need.
With subsidized pricing, the MacCloud is $99, plus a service contract. Subsidized just as the iPhone is now. Subsidized like the Kindle is with a high price. Subsidized with a service contract for MobileMe and 3G; I'm already paying for MobileMe. Heck, maybe this iPod is free with a contract.
So rather than the Mac laptops following the Apple design vectors (smaller, thinner, lighter, simpler), the iPod Touch is tweaked up a bit. Voila!
It’s a monster moneymaker. The MacCloud would be a purchasing machine for video, music, need I say apps, and services like banking and investing. All of which Apple can make money on.
Money is the ultimate content stream.